The rate cuts in November and then December were supposed to save Australian house prices.
Yet less than six months later, recent economic data suggest things are getting worse.
According to RP Data, capital city house prices lost a combined 4.5% last year.
But ever the optimist, RP Data called this decline in April a ‘renewed softness’.
Even Tim Lawless, RP Data’s research director, admitted interest rate cuts won’t help the housing market. He said:
‘Our estimate of transaction volumes to February suggest that the two interest rate cuts in November and December last year are yet to provide a sustained stimulus to the market, with transaction volumes remaining reasonably steady around 31,000 each month. Comparing this with the sales rate through mid 2009 when around 45,000 homes were selling each month, the slowdown in buyer activity becomes quite clear.’
Housing sales by volume are down 31% since mid-2009. Adding to the housing woes is the amount of ‘housing stock’ available. It’s double that of five years ago.
And not only are more houses available, but they’re cheaper as well.
Increased housing stock is dragging down house prices. Yet, what will happen to house prices when high debt levels catch up with us?
Take a look the two charts below. In the first chart, the blue line shows you Australia’s private debt to disposable income. It stands at 150%. In comparison, at the peak, Americans had a private debt level of 300%.
The peak in American private debt levels occurred just as house prices began to fall.
The next chart gives you an idea of just how big the housing crash was in the US (blue line)…and a warning of what Aussie home owners can expect:
Those charts come from Professor Steve Keen. He’s an economist who predicts a US style housing crash in Australia. He’s convinced that high personal debt levels will bring on a crash in Aussie home values, much like what happened in the US.
Professor Keen’s thinking used to be at the fringe of economic thought. Today, it’s mainstream.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has confirmed the correlation of debt levels and house prices. In their World Economic and Financial Surveys publication, the IMF said:
‘Based on an analysis of advanced economies over the past three decades, we find that housing busts and recessions preceded by larger run-ups in household debt tend to be more severe and protracted.’
The thing is, even if we don’t see a US style housing crash, monthly housing data suggests home values are falling at a steady rate.
So rather than a quick housing bust, Aussie homeowners face a long-term housing bust.
And it’s already underway. Even so, some spruikers still won’t admit it. They won’t say prices have fallen, they’ll tell you prices are soft…weakening…easing…. Or any other word they can think of to avoid saying, ‘Aussie house prices are falling‘.
The good news is the spruikers can’t hide behind industry-speak for much longer. Each month, fresh numbers show a dismal housing market.
One in permanent decline.
How long will it last? We don’t know that for sure. But this sort of decline could drag on for years. The US is into its sixth year of falling house prices.
The housing bubble took two decades to build up…it might take another two decades before house prices go up again.
Shae Smith
Editor, Money Weekend
